A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
